17 June 2019
By the year 2050, there will be some 9.7 billion people living on Earth, says a UN population report released on Monday. However, the overall growth rate will continue to fall, and more countries will have to adapt to the consequences of an ageing population.
“The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights”, estimates that the next 30 years
will see the global population add an extra 2 billion people to today’s figure of 7.7 billion,
and, by the end of the century, the planet will have to sustain around 11 billion.
India will overtake China, sub-Saharan Africa population to double
India is expected to show the highest population increase between now and 2050,
overtaking China as the world’s most populous country, by around 2027. India,
along with eight other countries, will make up over half of the estimated population
growth between now and 2050.
The nine countries expected to show the biggest increase are India, Nigeria and
The nine countries expected to show the biggest increase are India, Nigeria and
Pakistan, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania,
Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America. In all, the population of sub-Saharan
Africa is expected to practically double by 2050.
However, growth in these countries comes against the backdrop of a slowing global
However, growth in these countries comes against the backdrop of a slowing global
fertility rate. In 1990, the average number of births per woman was 3.2. By 2019 this
had fallen to 2.5 births per woman and, by 2050, this is projected to decline further to
2.2 births: a fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is necessary to avoid national
population decline over the long run (in the absence of immigration).
The population size of more and more countries is actually falling. Since 2010, 27
The population size of more and more countries is actually falling. Since 2010, 27
countries or areas have seen a drop of at least one per cent, because of persistently
low fertility rates. Between now and 2050, that is expected to expand to 55 countries
which will see a population decrease of one per cent or more, and almost half of
these will experience a drop of at least 10 per cent.
In some cases, the falling population size is reinforced by high rates of emigration,
In some cases, the falling population size is reinforced by high rates of emigration,
and migration flows have become a major reason for population change in certain
regions. Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines are seeing the largest migratory outflows
resulting from the demand for migrant workers; and Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela are
the countries where the largest numbers are leaving because of violence, insecurity or
armed conflict. For those countries where population is falling, immigration is expected
to plug the gaps, particularly in Belarus, Estonia and Germany.
Population report a ‘roadmap to action and intervention’
“Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries, where population
growth brings additional challenges”, said Liu Zhenmin, United Nations Under-
Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). These challenges include
the fight to eradicate poverty, and combat hunger and malnutrition; greater equality;
and improved healthcare and education. The report, he said, offers a “roadmap” indicating
where to target action and interventions.
At the same time, growth is providing opportunities in many developing economies:
At the same time, growth is providing opportunities in many developing economies:
recent reductions in fertility mean that the working-age population (25 to 64) is growing
faster than other age ranges, which could improve the possibilities for faster economic
growth. The report recommends that governments make use of this “demographic
dividend” to invest in education in health.
UNICEF/Frank Dejongh
UNICEF/Frank Dejongh
Boys taking a bath and having fun in a pond in Zinder, in the center of Niger. (1 June 2019)
Proportion of older people increasing, life expectancy still lower in poorer countries
There will be one in six people over 65 by 2050, up from the current figure of one in 11. Some
regions will see the share of older people double in the next 30 years, including Northern Africa
, Asia and Latin America.
By 2050, a quarter of the population in European and Northern America could be 65 or over. The higher proportion and number of older people is expected to put increased financial pressure on countries in the coming decades, with the higher cost of public health, pensions and social
By 2050, a quarter of the population in European and Northern America could be 65 or over. The higher proportion and number of older people is expected to put increased financial pressure on countries in the coming decades, with the higher cost of public health, pensions and social
protections systems.
Although overall life expectancy will increase (from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years in 2050), life expectancy in poorer countries will continue to lag behind. Today, the average lifespan of a baby
Although overall life expectancy will increase (from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years in 2050), life expectancy in poorer countries will continue to lag behind. Today, the average lifespan of a baby
born in one of the least developed countries will be some 7 years shorter than one born in a
developed country. The main reasons are high child and maternal mortality rates, violence,
and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic.
“The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights”, is published by the Population Division
“The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights”, is published by the Population Division
of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and provides a comprehensive overview of global demographic patterns and prospects. The report is based on population
estimates from 1950 to the present for 235 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of
historical demographic trends. The 2019 revision also includes population projections to the
year 2100, that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country
levels.
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